Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

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Will NFA Stamp approval times:

Poll ended at Wed Jul 26, 2017 5:31 pm

Decrease dramatically?
5
29%
Decrease slightly?
8
47%
Continue at same pace?
2
12%
Increase?
2
12%
 
Total votes: 17

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BadKarmaZeroSix
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Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

Post by BadKarmaZeroSix »

So, with a large number of stamps in jail (by my standards), my eye is starting to watch how wait-times are going to change now that they appear to be approving stamps submitted after July 13th deadline for 41F. My initial thought was that approval times could drop dramatically, since there was the incredible influx of last-minute submissions that were trying to beat the clock, and now that they appear to be beyond those, the comparitively lower number submitted SINCE the deadline would be sorted through much faster. So, i put it to you guys -- do you think my train of thought is way off?
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John A.
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Re: Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

Post by John A. »

I have a friend who is slightly over a year. Submitted prior to 41f.

I am currently at 11 months, and submitted just after.
When those totally ignorant of firearms make laws, you end up with totally ignorant firearm laws.
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BadKarmaZeroSix
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Re: Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

Post by BadKarmaZeroSix »

Hmmm, i'm intrigued by the vote that it may INCREASE...to my understanding, there was an extreme drop-off in the numbers of submissions after the deadline. Example: if there were 1000 per day leading up to 41F and ATF was approving 500 per day (i know, i know, it's just for argument sake), then it dropped to 200 submissions per day after 41F, wouldn't they catch up faster?
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dellet
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Re: Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

Post by dellet »

BadKarmaZeroSix wrote:Hmmm, i'm intrigued by the vote that it may INCREASE...to my understanding, there was an extreme drop-off in the numbers of submissions after the deadline. Example: if there were 1000 per day leading up to 41F and ATF was approving 500 per day (i know, i know, it's just for argument sake), then it dropped to 200 submissions per day after 41F, wouldn't they catch up faster?
There will be a decrease in wait time.................
About November or so.

Remember that as soon as all of the pre 41f's are done they will have a year of new applications that In theory will require more time to process.

When that bubble is over, there is another bubble of people who are starting to buy again thinking the wait times should magically decrease when the first bubble is worked through.

Kinda like 22 ammo. It was becoming available a year ago here locally. Last weekend was the first time I saw a "sale, no limit" in at least 6 years probably more.

It's going to take awhile.
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Netpackrat
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Re: Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

Post by Netpackrat »

That's a good point... for all of the post 41F trust submissions they will need to process photographs and fingerprint cards, and then perform background checks for all trustees. So, there may not be as dramatic of a wait decrease as you might otherwise expect. Still, having seen the pictures of the boxes and boxes of forms submitted by Silencershop alone as people rushed to beat the deadline, I can't see the wait doing anything but getting shorter at least for a while.

Of course, that's assuming they weren't already running names of trustees through NICS prior to the deadline, as a matter of precaution.
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Re: Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

Post by hardcase »

When I had my firearms trust set up it was geared toward my estate. As such there are business associates, my family attorney (now retired), my brother-in-law (also an attorney) who would find it uncomfortable to do fingerprint cards, etc. when they know nothing about ATF laws and my cans and SBRs remaining in my posession. I told each, if my wife and I get killed at the same time to turn them over to a dealer with all my other guns to sell. For practical purposes, my firearms trust is dead for buying new stamped items. I called the lawyer who set up my trust and he said my current items, before 41f, need no additional fp cards, background checks.

I think now, the executor of an estate can be in posession of these items and not be a trustee for purposes of disposal (either sell or distruction) but have not verified with a firearms attorney.

I have five cans that will work on most every gun I own. I had thought, before 41f, about getting a better .22 can and maybe a third Form 1 build. With this added aggravation, I will not.

I think 41f will do what the O'Bama administration wanted. That being to aggravate and hound dog gun owners into frustration while throwing a bone to the Blumberg crowd. Results less cans being sold. The recent shooting involving politicians in Washington killed any chance for the Hearing Protection law for cans.
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John A.
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Re: Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

Post by John A. »

Here are a few observations that many people don't think about. And I was the one who voted "will take longer". This is why. As well as what the other guys above have mentioned.

If the ATF is just now processing paperwork from a year ago, that leaves about a year of transfers that still haven't been touched.

------------------------------------

1. Recently, the NFA branch split into 3 different divisions. The Industry section, the Government section, and the civilian section.

I suspect they did that because their gov't and LEO transfers were taking too long to process.

Further, since the government currently has a hiring freeze, I suspect that they took people from the civilian section to process the other divisions.

I have called the NFA branch asking this question, and they will not give me a direct answer. Which leads me to further believe that I am correct.

This will slow things down.

--------------------------------------------------

2. The NFA branch doesn't process the fingerprints. The FBI does. The ATF forwards them to the FBI.

Now that trusts also have to have fingerprints processed, the backlog with the fbi will increase. So, instead of processing only individuals as they had always done before, each trustee is now going to be fingerprinted. So, if there are an average of 4 people on a trust (for instance), there will be 4x the workload on whatever department does the fingerprints.

This will slow things down.
--------------------------------------------------

3. Remember, each transfer of ownership has its' own paperwork. Even to SOT's. What a lot of people don't understand, when silencershop (for example of just silencer shop and completely ignoring all the form 1 and form 4's) held all of those forms until the last minute and dumped 10,000 form 4's in their lap, there will also be about 10,000 form 3's from the manufacturer to them (because they were alloted serial numbers and didn't actually have all of them in their possession at the time) and then there will be another 10,000 form 3's to transfer from them to the buyers SOT dealer to transfer to them.

So, 10,000 purchases, suddenly turned into 30,000 piles of paperwork.

This will slow things down.
When those totally ignorant of firearms make laws, you end up with totally ignorant firearm laws.
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dellet
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Re: Post 41F Deadline Submissions -- Your predictions?

Post by dellet »

John A. wrote:Here are a few observations that many people don't think about. And I was the one who voted "will take longer". This is why. As well as what the other guys above have mentioned.

If the ATF is just now processing paperwork from a year ago, that leaves about a year of transfers that still haven't been touched.

------------------------------------

1. Recently, the NFA branch split into 3 different divisions. The Industry section, the Government section, and the civilian section.

I suspect they did that because their gov't and LEO transfers were taking too long to process.

Further, since the government currently has a hiring freeze, I suspect that they took people from the civilian section to process the other divisions.

I have called the NFA branch asking this question, and they will not give me a direct answer. Which leads me to further believe that I am correct.

This will slow things down.

--------------------------------------------------

2. The NFA branch doesn't process the fingerprints. The FBI does. The ATF forwards them to the FBI.

Now that trusts also have to have fingerprints processed, the backlog with the fbi will increase. So, instead of processing only individuals as they had always done before, each trustee is now going to be fingerprinted. So, if there are an average of 4 people on a trust (for instance), there will be 4x the workload on whatever department does the fingerprints.

This will slow things down.
--------------------------------------------------

3. Remember, each transfer of ownership has its' own paperwork. Even to SOT's. What a lot of people don't understand, when silencershop (for example of just silencer shop and completely ignoring all the form 1 and form 4's) held all of those forms until the last minute and dumped 10,000 form 4's in their lap, there will also be about 10,000 form 3's from the manufacturer to them (because they were alloted serial numbers and didn't actually have all of them in their possession at the time) and then there will be another 10,000 form 3's to transfer from them to the buyers SOT dealer to transfer to them.

So, 10,000 purchases, suddenly turned into 30,000 piles of paperwork.

This will slow things down.
What you are forgetting is that Trump said he is going to update the technology the government uses to at least only 5-10 years out of date. That means that we should be able to get forms approved at least as fast as the cop shows of the 70's got their forensic evidence returned and the crime solved. :shock:

There are more new teachers hired every year than NFA forms filed. Almost every state requires an FBI background check not only for teachers, but most employees and volunteers. This process takes about 30-60 days at most.

The priority of NFA background checks will always be at the bottom and complicated by the need for two federal agencies to work together. When the back log works its way through I would guess 60-120 days as being normal, unless they start paying based on forms processed instead of by the hour. In which case wait time will be 24 hours.
300 Blackout, not just for sub-sonics.
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